Carl's Damn Near Accurate Oscar Predictions

BEST PICTURE
"An Education"
"Avatar"
"The Blind Side"
"District 9"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Precious"
"A Serious Man"
"Up"
"Up in the Air"

Winner: Hurt Locker

Why?: Because it won the Critics Choice awards as well as the most wards from various Critics organizations.

My opinion: Of the films nominated, Inglourious Basterds was my fav. However Hurt Locker is a good movie. Just of the five films I saw(wow, five of ten. Better than one of five right?), I would rank it last behind Avatar because Avatars effects were awesome. District 9 and Up were the other films I saw.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jeff Bridges for "Crazy Heart"
George Clooney for "Up in the Air"
Colin Firth for "A Single Man"
Morgan Freeman for "Invictus"
Jeremy Renner for "The Hurt Locker"

Winner: Jeff Bridges

Why?: Because he's one damn near every award thus far.

My Opinion: I've only seen Hurt Locker thus far so I have to go with Jeremy Renner who was excellent anyway.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Sandra Bullock for "The Blind Side"
Helen Mirren for "The Last Station"
Carey Mulligan for "An Education"
Gabourey Sidibe for "Precious"
Meryl Streep for "Julie & Julia"

Winner: Sandra Bullock

Why?: Because Meryl Streep's her only competition and she has two.

My Opinion: I'm just against Sandra Bullock for some reason. Though she was cool in Speed and Demolition Man. By the way, I've seen none of these moves.

DIRECTING
Kathryn Bigelow for "The Hurt Locker"
James Cameron for "Avatar"
Lee Daniels for "Precious"
Jason Reitman for "Up in the Air"
Quentin Tarantino for "Inglourious Basterds"

Winner: Kathyrn Bigelow

Why?: She won the DGA's top honor. So that's pretty much a shoe in.

My Opinion: I'm a Tarantino fan for sure and Avatar is a stylin' movie itself. However Bigelow did a damn fine job building the tension. Besides, first woman to win would be nice.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Matt Damon for "Invictus"
Woody Harrelson for "The Messenger"
Christopher Plummer for "The Last Station"
Stanley Tucci for "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz for "Inglourious Basterds"

Winner: Christoph Waltz

Why?: He's been the front runner before the race even got close to starting with his Cannes Film Festival win.

My Opinion: Only saw this film and Waltz literally waltzed throughout the film. Hell, before him Tarantino was considering abandoning the project altogether.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Penelope Cruz for "Nine"
Vera Farmiga for "Up in the Air"
Maggie Gyllenhaal in "Crazy Heart"
Anna Kendrick for "Up in the Air"
Mo'Nique for "Precious"

Winner: Mo'Nique

Why?: Because she's been the winner at all the other awards.

My Opinion: I saw none of these movies.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
"Ajami"
"El Secreto de Sus Ojos"
"The Milk of Sorrow"
"A Prophet"
"The White Ribbon"

Winner: The White Ribbon

Why?: Going with Golden Globes and buzz but... you never know. Last year Departures won when everyone thought it was going to be that Waltz With Bashir.

My Opinion: No opinion.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
"Coraline"
"Fantastic Mr. Fox"
"The Princess and the Frog"
"The Secret of Kells"
"Up"

Winner: Up

Why?: Go back up and check the Best Picture noms.

My Opinion: Personally, Monsters vs. Alien was my fav animated flick of the year and its a crying shame Ponyo was left off. So of these, I love Up but lean towards Coraline. That said, great year for animation. Mostly...

SCREENPLAY (Adapted)
"An Education"
"District 9"
"In the Loop"
"Precious"
"Up in the Air"

Winner: Up in the Air

Why?: Won some awards already.

My Opinion: No opinion. Other than District 9 rocks and Jason Reitman is going to have to share credit with a screenwriter he went to bat against with the WGA for full credit and lost to.

SCREENPLAY (Original)
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"The Messenger"
"A Serious Man"
"Up"

Winner: Inglourious Basterds

Why?: Won some awards already.

My Opinion: Works for me.

ART DIRECTION
"Avatar"
"The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus"
"Nine"
"Sherlock Holmes"
"The Young Victoria"

Winner: Avatar

Why?: Billion Dollars

My Opinion: Works for me.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
"Avatar"
"Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"The White Ribbon"

Winner: Avatar

Why?: Once again... Billion Dollars

My Opinion: I liked Basterds and Potter looked good.

COSTUME DESIGN
"Bright Star"
"Coco Before Chanel"
"The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus"
"Nine"
"The Young Victoria"

Winner: The Young Victoria

Why?: Going with Critics here.

My Opinion: Meh.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"Burma VJ"
"The Cove"
"Food Inc."
"The Most Dangerous Man in America"
"Which Way Home"

Winner: The Cove

Why?: Critics...

My Opinion: Apparently the successful and truly acclaimed Documentaries were snubbed. Everyone of them from Tyson to Anvil.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
"China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province"
"The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner"
"The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant"
"Music by Prudence"
"Rabbit a la Berlin"

Don't Know... But we'll say the Last Truck because of the timing.

FILM EDITING
"Avatar"
"District 9"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Precious"

Winner: Avatar

Why?: Money in the bank.

My Opinion: Yeah...

MAKEUP
"Il Divo"
"Star Trek"
"The Young Victoria"

Winner: The Young Victoria

Why?: Just a guess.

My Opinion: District 9 won this at Critics Choice and was not nominated here. Weird. Go Star trek!

MUSIC (SCORE)
"Avatar"
"Fantastic Mr. Fox"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Sherlock Holmes"
"Up"

Winner: Up

Why?: That's the buzz.

My Opinion: Of the films I've seen, up does evoke a real atmosphere with its music in the very dramatic first twenty minutes of the film.

MUSIC (SONG)
"Almost There" from "The Princess & the Frog"
"Down in New Orleans" from "The Princess & the Frog"
"Loin de Paname" from "Paris 36"
"Take it All" from "Nine"
"The Weary Kind" from "Crazy Heart"

Winner: The Weary Kind

Why?: T-Bone just makes the right music for the movies he's involved in.

My Opinion: Meh... haven't heard any of these.

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
"French Roast"
"Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty"
"The Lady and the Reaper"
"Logorama"
"A Matter of Loaf and Death"

Guess... The Lady and the Reaper because the title is awesome.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
"The Door"
"Instead of Abracadabra"
"Kavi"
"Miracle Fish"
"The New Tenants"

Guess... The Door. Don't know, sounds mysterious.

SOUND EDITING
"Avatar"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Star Trek"
"Up"

Winner: Avatar

Why?: Keeps ringing in the cash.

My Opinion: Seriously, sounds good.

SOUND MIXING
"Avatar"
"The Hurt Locker"
"Inglourious Basterds"
"Star Trek"
"Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen"

Winner: Avatar

Why?: Watch the money flow.

My Opinion: See above.

VISUAL EFFECTS
"Avatar"
"District 9"
"Star Trek"

Winner: Avatar

Why?: 300 million dollar movie makes billion dollars thanks to 3D tickets.

My Opinion: If it wasn't a 3D flick, District 9 or even Star Trek would whup it. But the 3D is just incredible.


There you have. Oscar predictions. Skip the show and watch a movie instead. It'll probably be boring anyway. It always is.